Update

April/May update:

April and May were again pretty sluggish with sales. As indicated below, we are holding on 5 single family home sales for each month. It will be an interesting summer for Real Estate in our area, as sales currently remain slow and listings continue to rise. I think we will see listing prices vary quite a bit as motivation from some sellers seems to be increasing. I will have made price reductions on 5 of my listings this month, a few that honestly appeared competitively priced have come down as much as $20,000. These price drops are becoming more common as the motivated sellers continue to move in this direction towards finding the market prices for their properties. One way to look at this is with our absorption rate (how long it will take to use up our current inventory). Approaching 100 single family homes on the market it will take nearly 2 years to use up this inventory selling 5 homes per month. So if we are not ahead of the curve in competitive pricing, many of these listings that “appear” competitive will continue to sit on the market without attracting buyers. If prices continue to correct, sellers may lose value in their homes from overpricing and reaching for that few extra bucks that is no longer there. As I have been suggesting to my sellers, it is the very best deal in each price range that seem to continue to be the ones selling in a reasonable time frame. This in itself is correcting our market prices, and leaving many of our listings in the dust. There are becoming some pretty good deals out there right now, so if you are thinking of buying, it seems like a great time to start looking around while mortgage rates are still very reasonable. For sellers, hang in there and be realistic with your pricing, and remember that curb appeal and staging your home combined with your realistic pricing might be what it takes to attract that next buyer!
Until next time, enjoy your spring!

Happy Spring???

March/April update:

March single family home sales remained strong. As indicated by the chart, we sold 7 homes in this month beating 2010 by 1 sale, and 2009 by 4. So far in April we have had 4 sales. It is great to see this activity and I think this improvement in numbers is not only attributed to a few more buyers in the market, but also signs of seller motivation and improving pricing. It will however be tough to beat our sales from April through to the end of June of last year (we sold 31 out of a total of 70 homes for the year in these 3 months thanks to some global economic factors, fear of rising interest rates, and changing CMHC lending rules). I do think we will still see a steady improvement in sales before the end of 2011. My feeling is that we will continue to see this improvement as prices continue to become more attractive to buyers who have been sitting on the fence for some time now. I am often asked how much prices have dropped in the last few years. This may vary somewhat in different price ranges, but I think it is safe to say that we have come down about 15%. A good example of this is the typical 30-40yr old bungalow that was selling for $300,000 3 years ago is now around $260,000ish. It is however somewhat tough to tell in a small market like ours with such few sales. I do think that motivated sellers are setting the real market value of the homes, and it is too bad that we did not have more sales to really justify our market prices. In my opinion many of our homes are still priced a little high for what the market will bear, and this will result in a slower than healthy turnaround of our inventory again for this year. We currently have 75 single family homes on the market (This along with the charts below do not include acreage properties, mobile homes, vacant land etc.) We carried around 50 over the winter, and 100 last summer. It is listing season for us Realtors, so if you are thinking of selling, now is a good time to beat the rush. It is always better with a little less competition! If you have any questions about Real Estate in our area please do not hesitate to ask!

Jan/Feb Real Estate update

As indicated in the charts below, we have started out the year strong with 5 single family home sales in January and 8 in February. This has surpassed the previous two years and hopefully this is a positive sign for Real estate in our area for 2011. From my perspective I am happy to report that I have been busy showing houses, as have our other Realtors in the area. Many of my listings are getting well overdue calls and showings and I would say that some have had more attention in the last month than the previous 4-5 months combined.

When to list your home?

I am often asked what time of year a seller should consider listing their home. With increased competition in the last few years and with sales continuing to be slow, could a strategy of when to list could really pay off? We typically think of the summer as the selling season in Real Estate for various reasons. Generally speaking I think if you are going to list your home “now” is probably the best time. Again with fewer buyers in the market you would not want to miss the one buyer in your property’s range that might come by while you are waiting for the best time to list. In the last few years we have only seen a handful of buyers in specific ranges so by waiting to list you may have missed out.
For example: 4 houses sold last year in the price range of $250-270,000. 3 were similar family homes and the other was more of a cabin type recreational property. The 3 family homes sold in April, May, and June, and no others for the rest of the year.
The Realtors here get bombarded with listings in the spring as you can see in the Listings-sales chart in the post below. If you waited until spring to list your $259,000 family home, you may have already missed these 3 buyers. Remember that although these buyers purchased in April, May, and June, they were thinking about it months in advance. From the time they decided to view houses, make an offer, satisfy conditions, and close the deal, these buyers were picking their property quite a bit earlier than when the sale was recorded.
So what is the best time to list your property? The sooner the better in my opinion, but if you are looking for a more specific time of the year I would suggest between January and March. Buyers are starting to shop around and the competition is relatively low compared to the months that will follow.
I will back this up in my next post with a chart that will show the sales divided by the number of listings for each month. This will show the probability of selling each month comparing the monthly sales to listings.

National resale housing activity improves in October

This report is from CREA. It is great to read this kind of news on a national level.

OTTAWA – November 15th, 2010 – National resale housing activity rose for the third consecutive month in October
2010, according to statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).
Seasonally adjusted national home sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate Boards climbed 4.6 per cent in October 2010. The monthly rise in activity builds on similar increases in August and September. As a result, activity now stands 13.3 per cent above July levels, when it reached this year’s low point. Three-quarters of local markets posted monthly increases in seasonally adjusted activity in October, led by Toronto and Vancouver. As further evidence that the market is returning to normal, sales activity in October stood halfway between the recessionary low reached in December 2008, and the record level activity posted in December 2009. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) national sales activity in October 2010 was 21.6 per below levels for October 2009, when activity set a new record for the month.
National sales activity rebounded last year without a single monthly decline and hit record levels in the second half of 2009. As a result, large declines in activity compared to year-ago levels are masking recent monthly gains in national sales activity. Record level activity late last year is expected to continue stretching year-ago comparisons over the rest of 2010 (Exhibit 1).
The number of new residential listings on Canadian MLS® Systems edged up 1.3 per cent on a seasonally adjusted basis in October. New listings remain 14 per cent below the recent peak reached in April 2010. National sales activity and new listings have swung widely but synchronously, which has kept the market in balanced territory since the spring. Over half of all local markets in Canada are balanced, with an almost equal proportion of the remainder in buyers’ or sellers’ market territory. The national average price trend remains stable, in keeping with a balanced market. The national average price trend has remained fairly steady for more than a year, but only recently is this being reflected in year-over-year comparisons. The national average price for homes sold in October 2010 was $343,747, up less than a percentage point compared to one year ago. October marks the fourth consecutive month in which the average home price has remained roughly even with year-ago levels.
The number of months of inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity, and measures the balance between housing supply and demand. The seasonally adjusted number of months of inventory stood at 6.2 months at the end of October on a national basis. This is down from 6.5 months in September. The number of months of inventory now stands a full month below where it was in July.
“The continuation of low interest rates is supporting sales activity, which has been improving over the past few months in a number of major markets including Vancouver,” said Georges Pahud, CREA’s President. “National housing market trends are improving, but local market trends can differ significantly, so home buyers and sellers should consult their REALTOR® to understand how their housing market is evolving.”
“National sales activity is now running almost halfway between the highs and lows posted between late 2008 and late 2009,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “This suggests that the Canadian housing market may be starting to normalize. After the wild rollercoaster ride that many housing markets have been on, normal and stable market conditions are something that many buyers and sellers will likely welcome.”
PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national
MLS® sales information from the previous month.
CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not
indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighborhoods or account for price differential
between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.
MLS® is a co-operative marketing system used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure
of properties listed for sale.
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations,
representing more than 100,000 REALTORS® working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations.
Further information can be found at http://www.crea.ca/public/news_stats/media.htm

GO CROWSNEST!

I would like to congratulate our new mayor and council, express my thanks to all the candidates that stepped forward and also to everyone that voted in yesterdays election. I think there was great representation for our community with our candidates, and I am thrilled with just how engaged we were. In my opinion we have ended up with a great group of people and I am very optimistic that they will do a great job for us. A special nod to Larry Mitchell for being the only incumbent to re-capture his title.

Put on your sunglasses, I have noticed things are looking a little brighter in South West Alberta today!

In case you have missed it, here are the unofficial results:

http://www.town.crowsnestpass.ab.ca/component/content/article/60

Listings and sales stats

This graph shows the number of listings and sales for each month dating back to January 2005. The data is based on MLS single family sales in the Crowsnest Pass. I found this interesting from a few different perspectives.
First (and most obvious) is the increasing spread between our listings and our sales. If you have your house listed right now, and have not had a showing (or even an inquiry) for a while, this might be why. Peaking at 123 listings in July, with only 2 homes sold that month, believe me you are not alone. Based on the month of July alone, it would take over 5 years to use up this inventory (this is the absorption rate which I will get into again in the near future).
Second is the seasonal variance in listings. From the peak in the summer to the peak in the winter we almost cut our listings in half. Sales are slower in the winter, but there are still sales. I am often asked “should I take my listing off for the winter, and put it back on in the spring?”. In my opinion, why not keep it on the market through the winter, and try to attract those buyers with half the competition. Just a quick look at the graph might actually suggest that your odds may be as good or better to sell during the winter.
Third is seasonal sales. If you look at the sales, there is a selling season. The line has a hump in it from January to January each year, and with the exception of July being the slower summer month. This year was the exception. As with the rest of the economy, and Canadian Real Estate, we were off to a great start this year (especially March through June), but in July sales dropped off and have not yet come back. This trend, which we saw in world markets and Canadian Real Estate sales was is attributed to nervousness of investors in the economy (thanks to shaky European markets), the start of rising interest rates in Canada, and a tightening of CHMC insured mortgage lending rules.
It will be interesting to see where our local Real Estate market will go from here, but in the meantime I think it is great to see this data to realize where we were, and where we are at this point in time.